Political analyst Amit Segal on Tuesday addressed the ongoing political crisis surrounding the Draft Law and reports of threats from the haredi coalition partners to leave the government. According to Segal, the fate of the crisis rests in the hands of a single individual.
“There is only one person to watch in the crisis with the haredim, and only one serious move that could lead to elections,” Segal wrote on X, sharing a video of his remarks on Channel 12 News.
He explained that despite the noise and threats, United Torah Judaism lacks the power to dismantle the coalition: “(Construction and Housing Minister Yitzhak) Goldknopf can resign, others can vote against bills, but there’s one person and one vote to focus on. That person is (Shas chief) Aryeh Deri. If he decides to leave the coalition or take an irreversible step — that’s what’s significant.”
Segal added that Deri “holds the option to break up the coalition, which United Torah Judaism does not have numerically. They have seven Knesset members; the coalition has sixty-eight.”
A coalition must hold at least 61 of the Knesset’s 120 seats.
Segal elaborated that a bill to dissolve the Knesset in four readings is a step that signals a move toward elections. According to him, such a move can be completed in one day if there is agreement. However, even a preliminary reading vote alone can serve as a means of pressure — not necessarily leading to immediate elections.
He continued, “The required step is a bill to dissolve the Knesset in four readings. If agreements are reached, we already know precedents for a law that passed from morning to evening in four readings, including a date. We also know other precedents for a preliminary reading vote that passed, and the Knesset was dissolved only a year later.”
Segal then pointed out discrepancies in Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s approach: “There is a gap here that should trouble Netanyahu. His associates are convinced that the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee is on the verge of agreements on the Draft Law, with very, very small gaps remaining. I must say — that’s not what the haredim are saying, nor what is being said in the Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee. Either Netanyahu doesn’t understand the situation, or, as the haredim suspect, he’s trying to mislead them and buy more time.”
He noted that there is only a short time left before the summer recess, adding, “It’s worth remembering how much time Netanyahu has left to pass it before the recess — 50 days.”
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2025-06-03 20:08:00
