Expectations are growing for early elections in Israel With some parties threatening Haredi to resign from the Israeli government over the conscription issue, and threats from the finance minister. Bezalel Smotrichand Minister of National Security. Itamar Ben-Gvirto oppose any partial deal that leads to an end to the genocidal war in Gaza.
This comes in parallel with the start of the Prime Minister’s interrogation Benjamin Netanyahu this week by prosecutors in court.
Analysts do not expect the Knesset In light of Netanyahu’s insistence on partial deals, withdrawing the hostage card from the hand of the resistance, and refusing to reach an end to the war, which has become a tool not only to maintain the stability of his extremist government, but also his most important propaganda tools in his upcoming election campaign, according to observers.
Haredim divided over withdrawal
The Haredi ultimatum to Netanyahu will end on Tuesday with the end of Shavuot, and they want to see a written bill to exempt them from the draft, which can be negotiated between their rabbis and senior coalition officials.
According to Maariv, without a written version of the draft law, the Haredim that the earth will shake beneath the coalition.
But the threats from the Yehudat Hatorah The hardliner is still confined to the Agudat Yisrael faction, led by Housing Minister Yitzhak Goldkopf, while the party’s second wing, Degel Hatorah, led by MK Moshe Gafni, is still willing to give the negotiations an additional chance until after the Shavuot holiday, which ends Tuesday.
In addition, the 11-seat Shas party, led by Netanyahu confidant Aryeh Deri, is not putting serious pressure on Netanyahu to quickly pass the draft exemption law.
Firas Yaghi, a specialist in Israeli affairs, believes that the members of Yehudat Hatorah will withdraw from the government, because they see that their presence in the government without any direct benefit puts them at odds with their constituents, and their presence in the opposition may give them better privileges.
Yaghi believes that the continuation of the war will increase the demands for conscription, so they will support any deal, in addition to the fact that their relationship with Washington is good, allowing them to be used to pressure Netanyahu and threaten to topple his government.
The Impact of a Possible Haredi Withdrawal
It should be noted, however, that even if the eight-member Yehudat HaTorah party were to withdraw from the coalition, the government would still be supported by 61 seats, meaning it would still have a simple majority, but its members seek to paralyze the coalition from passing its laws by boycotting sessions to pass bills that Netanyahu’s party puts on the agenda.
According to Maariv, Yehudat Hatorah has succeeded in paralyzing the coalition by boycotting votes in the Knesset plenum only on Wednesdays, the days when the initial bills are put to a vote in the current summer session of the Knesset. Knesset that will end on July 24.
Agudat Israel representatives are expected to resign from the government at a later date, but if they decide not to resign, they are expected to call for tougher measures to paralyze the coalition, boycotting Monday votes, when government bills are submitted for a vote, a move that would in itself lead to the dissolution of the coalition and the government.
Jamal Zahalka, a former Knesset member and lecturer in Israeli studies, believes that the Haredi religious parties will not bring down the government unless they know that they will gain from this, and this is not the case now, as the government that the elections will bring will most likely be worse for these parties, and they will lose some of their financial gains and will not get what they want regarding the enactment of the military service exemption law.
Netanyahu’s maneuver
Analysts do not expect Netanyahu to give in to Haredi pressure to pass the Haredi draft exemption law, despite it being one of the main conditions signed in the coalition agreements between Netanyahu and the parties of Yehudat HaTorah and Shas.
Channel 12 political analyst Dafna Liel believes that Netanyahu is in a race against time, as he does not really believe that there is a military service exemption law that can be approved in this coalition, as the issue of conscription is haunting his military service coalition Naftali Bennett (his expected rival according to many polls).
She added that Netanyahu aims to buy time until the end of the summer session and delay the withdrawal until the beginning of the next session.
Netanyahu also has another goal, even if he is doomed to go to the elections. He would rather go to the polls because of political or security issues, not because he failed to expand the army ranks because of the recruitment law when everyone knows that his future coalition will also include the Haredim.
Maariv political analyst Anna Braski agrees with Liel that deep down Netanyahu is not sure what he really prefers, the law or the elections, even if he succeeds in pleasing everyone, a Haredi-acceptable conscription law, if passed, would not be an achievement, but rather political damage to the Likud, not to mention that such a law is scheduled to be referred to the Supreme Court in just a few months.
Just last week, Netanyahu repeatedly tried to pressure Knesset Foreign Affairs and Security Committee Chairman Yuli Edelstein (Likud), who opposes the Haredi draft exemption law, to offer the Haredim an early and lucrative budget.
In a final attempt to resolve the conscription crisis, the Haredim, Edelstein and a cabinet minister will meet on Tuesday evening, immediately after the recess, and Netanyahu’s team is expected to ask for another 10 days to finalize the drafts they have been working on recently, but this time, it is not certain that the Haredim will agree to this request.
Smotrich and Ben-Gvir’s threats
In contrast to the Haredi threat, serious threats of a different kind emerged from Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, after US Special Envoy to the Middle East Stephen Witkoff’s new proposal was presented a few days ago to Hamas, which responded on Saturday evening, as described by Channel 13 political analyst Moriah Asaroff, with “yes, but”.
Smotrich gave Netanyahu the green light to negotiate on the basis of the Witkoff blueprint just two weeks ago, according to Channel 12, and even then, there was talk of a ceasefire for dozens of days with no explicit guarantees to end the war.
But after serious talk of Witkoff’s new revised proposal to release 10 live prisoners and 18 dead bodies in exchange for 60 days of truce, which includes an IDF withdrawal and a UN-supervised aid flow, Smotrich hardened his stance and declared that he would not allow a partial deal to pass, demanding continued pressure on Gaza until it is fully subdued.
“I don’t agree with Witkoff’s proposal, and Netanyahu made a mistake when he agreed to work according to the proposal,” Ben-Gvir said. Zahalka ruled out that Smotrich and Ben-Gvir would bring down Netanyahu’s government, “They would face severe criticism if they brought down a right-wing government, and overall they cannot dream of a government more extreme and right-wing than the current one.”
Israeli expert Alif Sabbagh agrees that Ben-Gvir and Smotrich – who fell in most polls during the war and is accused by his base of not equalizing the burden of compulsory military service – cannot bring down the current government, and even if they leave the government because of a deal in Gaza, they will still support it.
Early elections
In the context of the early elections scenario, which requires the current Netanyahu-led government to be toppled by a no-confidence resolution passed by a majority in the Knesset, Maariv political analyst Anna Brasky predicted that elections will be held in early 2026 rather than late 2026, after the current Knesset session ends in October 2026.
She added that it might be better for Netanyahu to go to the polls under the slogan “We did not compromise on the need to recruit Haredim,” which would be better than going to the polls too soon, without any impressive accomplishment to sell to voters.
All Netanyahu needs now is more time, and it is unlikely at this point that his interests will converge with the plans of the majority within the Haredi leadership, which is talking about an agreed-upon election date.
Analyst Alif Sabbagh ruled out a dissolution of Netanyahu’s government soon, saying that elections will not be held before their date, as the Haredim are pulling the rope to get their goals, as are Smotrich and Ben-Gvir, but no one is guaranteed to return to the government after early elections, so there is no interest for them, Netanyahu, or members of the Knesset. Likud in early elections.
Zahalka believes that Israeli elections will most likely be held in June 2026, before their date in October 2026, as in recent decades. He points out that the date of the elections is related to political and partisan developments and tensions, as the government will fall if the budget is not approved by the end of March 2026, stressing that “Netanyahu will not voluntarily announce early elections unless he is confident of winning them, and he is far from that at this stage.”
On the other hand, Yaghi believes that Netanyahu is not at all looking for any early elections in light of the opinion polls, as Netanyahu’s options are zero, as he is on trial and will be convicted, and if his government falls, the issue of security leaks from his office will emerge strongly.
In addition, the official government investigation committee into what happened on October 7, 2023, and he will face either imprisonment, impeachment, guilty pleas, or continuing his wars and entering a war with Iran, in light of which he will postpone the elections.
Gaza’s bleeding continues
Observers believe that whether early elections are held or elections are held on time, the reality in Gaza is unlikely to change for the better, with polls indicating that former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, a far-right leader, is ahead of Netanyahu and his coalition.
Alif Sabbagh, a specialist in Israeli affairs, stressed that any elections, whether early or on time, will not affect Netanyahu’s program, because he seeks to keep Gaza an open wound from which he will benefit to the maximum as long as the Arab situation continues in its impotence and even cooperation with Netanyahu, and as long as US support remains unchanged.
He added that even if Netanyahu does not declare his victory as he dreams, and even if he fails in the displacement, Israel and America, regardless of who governs Israel, will prevent the process of rebuilding the Gaza Strip, and no Arab ruler will dare to provide assistance for reconstruction unless the Israeli-American conditions are met.
Zahalka believes that Netanyahu will prolong the war on Gaza until the elections, and during the electoral battle he will declare “absolute victory” and keep Israeli forces in Gaza to continue the occupation, and Bennett will not get the numbers in the real elections that he gets in the polls, and the struggle for the leadership of the opposition will remain between Lieberman, Gantz, Lapid and Bennett.
“Bennett is no less right-wing than Netanyahu, and if he wins, he will find nothing more to do in Gaza than what the current government has done in terms of genocidal war and mass destruction, and the difference will be in the coalition, as instead of the extreme right-wing parties, Bennett will be with the center parties.”
He pointed out that Israel’s strategic goal is displacement, and if displacement is not possible due to the Egyptian rejection, Israel is preparing for displacement by waiting for a favorable opportunity to implement it, by making Gaza unfit for human life, and as long as Israel does not find anyone to stop it, it will continue the crime of extermination for another year and perhaps more, and the elections themselves will not stop the killing and destruction.
Source link
2025-06-02 23:51:00
